Will an agent win the $700,000 ARC-AGI-3 Grand Prize in ARC Prize 2026?
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Today's QuestionBiotechnology
Will the first patient receive a pig kidney in eGenesis's RESTORE trial by June 30, 2027?
Answer in 248 days
How this resolves: Resolves Yes if eGenesis or Mass General Brigham publicly announces, on or before June 30, 2027, that a patient received an EGEN-2784 kidney transplant as part of the RESTORE trial.
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60%
At 60%, about 6 of 10 calls like this should come true.
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60% means: of 10 calls like this, about 6 should happen.
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What is Obvious Later?
Obvious Later is a free forecasting site for open questions about frontier science and technology. You give a question a private probability from 0 to 100% before the crowd forecast is shown to you. Every call is timestamped and cannot be edited, and each question resolves Yes or No against rules written when it opened.