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Will Fervo bring all three Cape Station Phase I GeoBlocks into commercial operation by January 1, 2027?

Answer in 98 days

How this resolves: Resolves Yes if a Fervo press release or SEC filing published by January 31, 2027 states that the second and third Cape Station Phase I GeoBlocks reached commercial operation on or before January 1, 2027.

Closes Dec 30, 2026, 15:00 UTC (12:00 BRT)

Why it matters

Fervo's Cape Station in Utah became the first greenfield enhanced geothermal plant to reach commercial operation on September 30, 2026, with one 33 MW GeoBlock. Two more are being commissioned, and Fervo says they will reach contractual commercial operation by January 1, 2027.

Question provenance

How this question entered the record and how it will be resolved.

Resolution criteria
Resolves Yes if a Fervo press release or SEC filing published by January 31, 2027 states that the second and third Cape Station Phase I GeoBlocks reached commercial operation on or before January 1, 2027. Resolves No otherwise.
Expected resolution
Jan 31, 2027

Key evidence

  • Fervo press release, October 1, 2026: first GeoBlock at commercial operation with 33 MW net, remaining two expected by January 1, 2027
  • IEEE Spectrum, October 12, 2026: Fervo working to commission two more 33 MW blocks by January 1

Skeptical perspective

Each GeoBlock depends on a full set of wells coming online, and new plants often slip by weeks at commissioning.

What could change the outlook

  • Fervo's third quarter results and guidance
  • Commissioning or well problems at Cape Station
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How does this question resolve?

Resolves Yes if a Fervo press release or SEC filing published by January 31, 2027 states that the second and third Cape Station Phase I GeoBlocks reached commercial operation on or before January 1, 2027. Resolves No otherwise.

When does this question close?

It closes to new calls on December 30, 2026.